The forecast's scenarios, re-scored on the results so far
The polls
Since May · line = average with house effects removed · dots = individual polls
Every poll since May (table)
Seat by seat
How it could go
Every simulation sorted into one outcome · graded by how often
Six nights, scored
The scenario guide's six nights, graded the same way: the share of simulations whose party vote is closest to each, measured in units of past polling error.
The Swing Atlas
Every voting place · change in National's lead over Labour since 2023
Go to
Scroll or pinch to zoom · drag to pan · click a place for its electorate